U.S. Deficit Estimated at $2 Trillion as Treasury Yields Reach 5%

The U.S. closed fiscal 2026 with an estimated $2.0 trillion deficit as Treasury yields reached 5% or more on key maturities, a combination that can raise refinancing costs as federal debt comes due. Fiscal 2026 ran from Oct. 1, 2025, through Sept. 30, 2026, and the estimated shortfall was $218 billion larger than the prior fiscal year. On Oct. 14, the five-year Treasury yield was 5.00%, the seven-year yield was 5.09% and the 10-year yield was 5.19%. The daily readings reflect market quotations collected at or near 3:30 p.m. ET (19:30 UTC). Outlays rose $386 billion, or 6%, over fiscal 2025, while receipts grew $169 billion, or 3%. The figures show federal spending exceeded receipts across the fiscal year, leaving the estimated $2.0 trillion gap.

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