S&P 500 Q4 Forecast: Can AI Leadership Survive 5%+ Treasury Yields?

The long-end rate scenario confronting US equities is no longer hypothetical. On October 6, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.27% and the 30-year yield at 5.64%, according to the US Treasury’s daily yield-curve data . That creates a sharper Q4 test for the S&P 500’s AI leadership. The question is not simply whether cloud and AI revenue can continue expanding. It is whether the companies carrying that leadership can turn immense spending on computing infrastructure into returns fast enough to justify their valuations when investors can obtain materially higher yields from long-dated government debt. There is meaningful fundamental support.

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