IMF Models Global Output 1.1% Below Baseline by 2028 in AI Pullback

The International Monetary Fund’s downside scenario puts global output 1.1% below baseline by 2028 if a sharp slowdown in AI investment drives down stocks and other asset prices. U.S. output would be 1.8% below baseline, the largest shortfall in the scenario. The estimate is separate from the IMF’s central outlook, which projects 3.1% global growth in 2026. The modeled downturn could begin if investors doubt that AI investment will generate sufficient revenue. Falling asset prices could erode investor wealth and restrain consumption, carrying financial-market stress into the wider economy. Companies could also face difficulty repaying debt as the value of related investments declines. Market concentration adds to the potential exposure.

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