Prediction markets make major U-turn on Fed’s October rate decision

As Fed Chair Kevin Warsh refused to preview the October 28 rate decision on October 16, 2026, during an IMF (International Monetary Fund) fireside chat in Bangkok, saying he does not prejudge meetings, prediction markets sharply raised their odds of no change.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ On Friday, at the time of reporting, the probability of a no rate change in the Fed’s October decision surged to an all-time high (ATH) of 87%, according to data Finbold analyzed from Polymarket, a top-tier decentralized prediction market platform. The odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in October were at 14%. The Federal Reserve raised its interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, during its September 16 policy decision.

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