Bitcoin (BTC) Supply Cap Does Not Prevent Losses Above 70%

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Bitcoin (BTC) has a hard issuance ceiling of 21 million coins, but that limit does not shield the market from deep losses, making scarcity an incomplete measure of how much risk buyers face. The cap governs how many BTC the protocol will create; it does not set the market price. Bitcoin’s price depends on supply and demand, so the issuance limit cannot by itself show whether the asset is attractively priced or guarantee that its value will rise. New supply enters through mining rewards, which are reduced by half every 210,000 blocks, an interval of roughly four years. Bitcoin’s fourth halving took place Apr. 20, 2024, at block 840,000, cutting the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC.
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