Polymarket Puts U.S. Invasion of Iran Odds at 16.5% Under Narrow Contract Rules

Polymarket priced the “Yes” outcome in its U.S.-Iran invasion contract at 16.5% on Oct. 15, with the rules setting a narrow territorial-control threshold through the end of 2026. A market record updated at 3:11 p.m. ET (19:11 UTC) showed a 16.5% price and a 16% last trade. For a “Yes” resolution, U.S. forces must undertake an offensive aimed at controlling part of Iran by 11:59 p.m. ET Dec. 31, 2026 (04:59 UTC Jan. 1, 2027). The rules also treat land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States at noon ET (17:00 UTC) on Nov. 4, 2025, as that country’s sovereign territory. A ceasefire breakdown alone, or military action without a territorial-control aim, would not meet the stated test. President Donald J. Trump wrote Oct.

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