AI watchdog report indicates we may have less than 6 months before AI super intelligence arrives

Anthropic's AI models were likely improving on tasks with clear success criteria roughly twice as fast in October 2026 as they did between March 2024 and October 2025, according to a Nov. 5 assessment by METR , an independent model-evaluation group. METR judges that AI assistance probably accounts for most of the recent acceleration. But Anthropic redacted much of the evidence behind that judgment, leaving outsiders with a clearer view of the faster benchmark trend than of what caused it. The central published measurement uses AECI, Anthropic's version of the Epoch Capabilities Index. METR estimated that AECI's fitted growth rate after October 2025 was 1.9 times its earlier rate, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.5 to 2.8 times.

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