Markets expect steady Fed policy as French debt spread nears 150 basis points

Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh’s silence on an October rate hike has shifted market expectations toward December, even as French borrowing costs and AI-related credit risks climb. In his October 19, 2026 commentary, Stephen Coltman, Head of Macro at 21shares , highlighted the contrast: easing US Treasury yields, mounting pressure on French debt and widening credit spreads among heavily indebted AI companies. Key takeaways Markets again expect an October Fed hold, with a possible hike deferred to December. France’s borrowing premium over Germany is approaching 150 basis points. Oracle’s credit spreads are moving closer to high-yield levels. Kevin Warsh leaves Federal Reserve hike expectations pointing to December Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates at the end of October after Kevin Warsh gave no signal preparing investors for an…

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