Indicative French-German Yield Gap Reaches About 142 Basis Points

Traders put an 85% chance on a Federal Reserve rate hold this month, while an indicative French-German yield gap of about 142 basis points showed continued pressure in European debt markets. On Oct. 19, contracts tied to the Fed’s October decision assigned a 14% chance to a quarter-point increase. Contracts for the Dec. 9 decision put the chance of a quarter-point increase at 74%. Those percentages reflect contract prices, rather than a signal from the Fed about its next move. The Oct. 1 pricing snapshot had put the probability of an October hold at 64%. The Oct. 19 reading showed traders favoring unchanged rates more strongly ahead of the next policy meeting. Contract prices can change before the Fed makes its decision. At its Sept.

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