Polymarket Bitcoin and Rate Hike Odds Shift as CME Says No Change

Polymarket put the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in October at 23%, with $43 million traded, while CME FedWatch pricing ranged from roughly 37% to 44%, and the gap formed as Bitcoin fell below $82,000 following hotter-than-expected inflation data, though it is recovering. The September consumer price index rose 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% consensus and August’s 3.4%, according to the October 15 market report. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also came in above expectations: it increased 0.3% month over month against a 0.2% forecast, and 2.6% annually against 2.5% expected. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% on the month. The report pushed FedWatch’s October hike probability from about 22% before the release to approximately 37%-44% during Wednesday.

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