Bitcoin Faces A 42% Crash Risk As History Raises Alarm

Two analyses revive the prospect of a sharp drop in bitcoin. Jason Calacanis targets 57000 dollars, while a repetition of the 2018 electoral cycle would lead BTC below 50000 dollars. These forecasts seem to converge, but they rely on different mechanisms and therefore do not automatically reinforce each other. Ali Martinez relies on bitcoin’s performance during the fourth quarters corresponding to the US midterm elections. BTC had fallen during the three previous occurrences, but with very different amplitudes. Jason Calacanis, for his part, forecasts a return of bitcoin to around 57000 dollars over the next twelve months. This target represents a decline of about 28% from the 79600 dollars observed at the time of his statement. In 2014, bitcoin lost 16.70% in the fourth quarter.

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