Zillow Forecasts Fourth-Quarter U.S. Home Sales to Fall Up to 3.5%

Zillow projects U.S. existing-home sales will decline year over year in the fourth quarter of 2026, with estimates ranging from 2.8% to 3.5% depending on the sales measure. The projections are forecasts, while the latest reported figures show September sales rose from August but stayed below their year-earlier level. Zillow’s forecast calls for a 3.5% fourth-quarter decline using its own sales count and a 2.8% drop using the National Association of Realtors (NAR) measure. The two estimates use different methods and are not directly interchangeable.

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