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Markets

Diesel Supply Is Projected to Fall Short in the Fourth Quarter and Stay Tight Into 2027

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Global diesel supply is projected to fall short of demand in the fourth quarter of 2026, keeping markets tight into 2027 even if refinery output rebounds quickly by year-end. Inventory rebuilding beyond normal seasonal changes is unlikely before the second half of 2027. Stocks fell more than usual in the second quarter, then continued to decline in the third quarter despite the usual seasonal pattern. Prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian exports contributed to the drawdowns, leaving less fuel in reserve ahead of peak winter demand.

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