S&P 500 prediction after Democrats’ blue wave midterm sweep

The S&P 500 could correct towards 6,700 following Democrats’ sweeping victories in the 2026 U.S. midterms, although historical trends point to potential gains over the subsequent six months. Democrats’ takeover of both chambers of Congress has introduced uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, particularly taxation, government spending, and technology regulation. Historically, however, the index has rallied after midterms. Liquid data covering 19 cycles between 1950 and 2022 shows that every November–April period posted gains, averaging 14.8%. Returns ranged from 3.3% in 2014 to 24.8% in 1970, while the 2022 cycle gained 7.7%. S&P 500 historical returns At the same time, BlackRock data also shows that the S&P 500 averaged a 14.1% return in the six months following midterms since 1970, compared with 5.7% during equivalent periods in non-midterm years.

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