Prediction Markets Price October Fed Hike Odds Near One in Four

Early Thursday, hike prices on two US prediction-market platforms ranged from 24% to 27% ahead of the Oct. 27–28 Fed meeting. At about 2:54 a.m. ET (06:54 UTC) Oct. 15, Kalshi showed a 27% price for a hike and 71% for no change. Polymarket US showed 24% for a hike and 77% for no change. The readings were separate contract prices that can change over time. Kalshi’s hike price was 16% before the September consumer price index (CPI) report, released Oct. 14, and rose to 33% afterward. It had eased to 27% by early Thursday. The September CPI report showed the overall index rose 0.6% from August, after a 0.4% increase the month before. Prices were up 3.7% over the year through September.

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