Kalshi, Polymarket Predictors Favor Democrats to Sweep 2026 Midterms

Both prediction market platforms predict Democrats will retake control of both the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, although their record has been muddled by President Lula’s upset victory in Brazil’s recent runoff election. Prediction markets, which have proven to be somewhat reliable when it comes to political outcomes, are signaling a clear advantage for the Democratic Party on the eve of the upcoming midterm elections, when all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested. Polymarket’s Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms event market, which has a volume of over $58 million, gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning control of both the House and the Senate, while only maintaining an 18% probability for Republicans…

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