AI IPO Dilution Could Fuel Crypto’s Next Rally, Analyst Warns

AI IPO dilution is shaping up to be the next big test for markets, and one well-known crypto analyst warns it could shake risk assets before setting up crypto’s next rally. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that public listings of SpaceX, Anthropic and eventually OpenAI could leave investors who buy at the offering price facing steep losses. In a post on X shown below, he previewed his latest essay, “D is for Dilution,” which argues that as insider shares unlock, a wave of new supply could flood the market and drive prices lower. The figures are striking. Hayes estimates that roughly 8.6 billion SpaceX shares could become tradable by June 2027, about half of the current share count.

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