Prediction Markets Favor Another Drop as Year-End Bitcoin Price Forecasts Sour

Bitcoin price prediction markets are signaling a difficult finish to 2026, with Polymarket traders assigning a 52% probability to a $70,000 retreat before January and just 9% to a $100,000 comeback, while Kalshi participants concentrate their year-end expectations around $70,000 to $80,000. As of noon Eastern time on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, bitcoin’s price traded at $75,723 , down 2.4% over seven days and 6.6% over the preceding month. With fewer than eight weeks remaining in the calendar year, prediction markets reveal considerable skepticism about a meaningful recovery. Across prediction marketplaces like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad, traders are positioning around lower price thresholds while assigning increasingly remote probabilities to six-figure valuations. The figures reflect market-implied expectations rather than definitive forecasts, and the differences between contract structures deserve particular attention.

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