Polymarket Odds of Bitcoin Hitting $82,500 in October Fall to 36%

The probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $82,500 before October ends stood at 36% on Polymarket’s contract at 7:53 a.m. ET (11:53 UTC) Tuesday, down 20% over the prior 24 hours. The contract tracks whether BTC reaches the threshold at any point during October, rather than where it closes the month. Its 36% reading refers to that specific price-touch outcome. The contract resolves Yes if a Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle has a high of at least $82,500 during the measurement window. That window began at midnight ET Oct. 1 and ends at 11:59 p.m. ET Oct. 31. A qualifying candle triggers an immediate Yes resolution; otherwise, the contract resolves No when the window ends. The settlement rule excludes price readings from other exchanges and trading pairs.

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