Polymarket Puts 3% Odds on Bitcoin Reaching $130,000 in 2026

Polymarket pricing put a 3% chance on Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $130,000 or higher by the end of 2026, while a separate Deribit options estimate put the odds of touching $100,000 at 20% to 25%. The figures cover different price targets and are not directly comparable. The Polymarket reading was dated Oct. 22. Its contract tracks the $130,000 threshold; it does not measure the odds of Bitcoin setting any new record. The Deribit estimate concerns a $100,000 touch by year-end. Kalshi’s Sept. 29 contract put a 38% chance on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again , a different venue and contract from Polymarket’s $130,000 target. Enna Lee reports on investing and digital-asset markets for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to info@tokenpost.com.

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