Market sees 3% chance of Bitcoin hitting record high this year

Prediction markets and options traders are pricing in a long, slow recovery for Bitcoin after its 2025 peak A year ago, Bitcoin was setting records. Now traders are pricing in a 3% chance it sets another one before 2026 ends. That number comes from prediction market pricing. It arrives with Bitcoin down roughly 25% since October 2025, when it peaked near $126,080. As of October 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the low-to-mid $80,000 range, roughly $82,000 to $85,000. Depending on where in that band you measure, the drop from the all-time high works out to somewhere between 25% and 34%. On Polymarket, pricing as of October 22, 2026, gave Bitcoin a 3% probability of hitting $130,000 or higher this year.

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