Bitcoin Model Shows Reclaiming $126,198 Does Not Ensure a Year-End Close

A one-year Bitcoin (BTC) simulation found that closing above $126,198.07 at least once was more common than ending the year above the same level. The results separate a temporary move past the threshold from the price at the end of the modeled period. Of 100,000 simulated paths, 50.4% recorded at least one daily close above the threshold within 365 days. By the end of the year, 34.8% were above it. The difference is 15.6 percentage points, representing paths that crossed the level but finished below it. The model generated paths by resampling seven-day blocks from 1,096 daily log returns covering Oct. 26, 2023, through Oct. 26, 2026. It began at $79,949.93, the reference close on Oct. 26, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET (Oct. 27 at 00:00 UTC).

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