Bitcoin Holds Firm as U.S. Housing Weakens Before Wednesday’s Fed Meeting

Weaker U.S. housing activity and firm inflation readings gave markets opposing signals on rates before the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday, Oct. 28, decision, with estimates putting the chance of an immediate increase below 20%. Bitcoin (BTC) held up comparatively well through the week’s cross-asset volatility, even as equity swings affected risk assets at times. Its sensitivity to interest-rate expectations keeps the Fed outlook relevant for crypto markets. Two market estimates dated Oct. 20 put the chance of a 25-basis-point increase at Wednesday’s meeting at about 12% and nearly 17%. The higher estimate had been above 40% a week earlier. For December, markets assigned about an 83% probability to another increase. A 25-basis-point move equals one-quarter of a percentage point; these probabilities reflect expectations rather than a Fed decision.

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