Inflation, Treasury Yields and AI Spending Frame Bitcoin’s Macro Backdrop

Three measures frame the backdrop for Bitcoin (BTC): U.S. inflation at 3.7% over the past year, a 5.10% 10-year Treasury yield and a forecast for nearly $800 billion in hyperscaler spending in 2026. Together, they describe conditions investors may weigh, but they do not provide a reliable signal for BTC’s direction. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September from August and 3.7% over the 12 months through September. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the year. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point on Sept. 16, setting it at 3.75% to 4%. The committee said, “Inflation remains elevated.” Its next scheduled meeting is Oct. 27–28.

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