Why Did Copper Fall After a 44% Shortage Warning?

Copper fell 2.68% on October 22, breaking an April support trendline that had held through five tests. The drop came two days after BloombergNEF warned of a copper supply deficit reaching 44% of demand by 2050. Yet the same report rates the 2026 copper market in surplus. Traders appear to be pricing that near-term cushion, not the long-term gap. Why Is Copper the Odd One Out? BloombergNEF (BNEF) published its annual Transition Metals Outlook on October 20. Nine of the 10 materials it covers should have enough supply through 2050. Copper is the exception. BNEF projects a 20 million tonne shortfall by 2050, starting as early as 2028. Demand is set to climb 61% to nearly 46 million tonnes a year. Electrified transport alone accounts for 11.4 million.

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