Why Bank of England Hawks Are Gaining Ground as Inflation Heads Above 4%

A Bloomberg Economics model shows Bank of England (BoE) officials are the most hawkish since early 2023. Markets now price a near-certain rate hike on Nov. 5. The BoE has not tightened as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) did. It held in September on a 6-3 vote, so two members switching would flip the result. Why Are Bank of England Officials Changing Their Tone? Bloomberg Economics built BOESPEAK , a natural language processing model that scores the tone of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members. Scores above zero signal hawkish sentiment, meaning a preference for higher interest rates. The index jumped after public appearances by MPC members, including at International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok.

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