U.S. Debt Needs Fiscal Adjustment Equal to 4% of GDP to Fall

The United States needs a fiscal adjustment equal to about 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) relative to the current baseline to put its debt on a downward path, with higher federal revenue and changes to entitlement programs forming part of the shift. At the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Bangkok on Wednesday, Oct. 14, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said growth would help but could not “deliver fast enough the necessary adjustments.” Her remarks contrast with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s view that the country can grow its way out of debt. In an Aug. 20 interview, Bessent said, “There’s nothing magic about the $40 trillion number.

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