Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?

The S&P 500 has posted gains in the year after every US midterm since 1982. With Americans voting today, history favors stocks, but several macro risks could test that record. Bitcoin (BTC) has also finished higher a year after recent midterms. However, its path through the following months has been far rougher than that of stocks. Four Decades of Gains After the Midterm Vote According to CNBC, the S&P 500 averaged a 13.7% gain one year after the 11 midterm elections since 1982. The index ended higher in every case. CFRA senior investment strategist Arun Sundaram points to an even longer record. He says markets have never fallen in the 12 months from October of a midterm year since World War II. Those periods averaged gains of about 16%.

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