Record El Niño Could Free More Asian LNG Cargoes for Europe

A record-strength El Niño is likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter, potentially easing Asian gas demand and making more spot liquefied natural gas cargoes available to Europe. Sea-surface temperatures in the NINO.3 region reached 4.0°C above normal in September, exceeding the previous record of 3.6°C set in December 1997. The strongest conditions are virtually certain to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. Strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions are likely to persist through January-March 2027, with the probability above 83%. October readings reached +2.1°C in Niño-3.4, +3.0°C in Niño-3 and +3.9°C in Niño-1+2.

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