Near-Term Inflation Expectations Hit Their Highest Level Since May 2023

U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, while median one-year inflation expectations reached 3.9%, adding to pressure on the Federal Reserve’s effort to bring inflation to its 2% goal. The year-over-year Consumer Price Index rate rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August. Gasoline prices increased 9.1% during the month and accounted for more than half of the overall index’s monthly gain. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% from a year earlier. Median expected inflation over the next year increased 0.3 percentage point from August to 3.9%, its highest level since May 2023.

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