Morgan Stanley Puts a Number and a Timeline on China’s Stock Bottom

It has been a tough year for Chinese stocks, with the CSI 300 down 13.44% in 2026. The Hang Seng has shed 11.87%, and Morgan Stanley doesn’t think the selling is done. The bank has estimated how much further prices could fall, and which move could signal a bottom. Earnings Keep Pulling the Floor Lower The CSI 300 entered a bear market last week . In a Sunday note reported by Bloomberg , Morgan Stanley sees offshore shares falling another 10% to 15%. That would bring valuations down to their historical level of about 8 times forward earnings. For mainland shares, the bank expects a similar de-rating to about 10-11 times. The CSI 300 trades at 11.6 times, the Hang Seng at 9.5 times.

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