IMF Projects U.S. Interest Costs to Reach 5.7% of GDP by 2031

The International Monetary Fund projects U.S. government interest payments will reach 5.7% of gross domestic product in 2031, roughly matching Social Security spending as higher borrowing costs add pressure to public budgets. The average effective cost of government financing is projected to rise from 2.3% in 2021 to 3.7% by 2031. The forecast comes as government bond yields climb and debt-service costs increase across major economies. Over the seven months from February to September, the G7’s average 10-year government yield gained more than 100 basis points and reached a level last seen almost 20 years ago. Global public debt is projected to exceed annual global output by 2030, a threshold last reached just after World War II.

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