Fidelity's Timmer Doubts 60/40 Revival as Stock-Bond Correlation Slips

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ director of global macro, doubts the 60/40 portfolio is back. His chart shows the five-year stock-bond correlation still above zero at current Treasury yields. The 60/40 portfolio, which holds 60% stocks and 40% bonds, relies on bonds rising when equities fall. Falling correlation looks favorable, yet Timmer argues higher yields keep the two moving together. As a result, 60/40 holders could have less cover. How Does Yield Level Shape the Stock-Bond Correlation? Timmer’s chart tracks how closely the S&P 500 and long-dated Treasuries have moved over five years. In 2013 and 2020, when yields were extremely low, the reading sank deep into negative territory. It turned positive as yields climbed. The latest reading sits between 10% and 12%, based on data through November 2.

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