Democrats’ Midterm Win Followed Months of Prediction-Market Scrutiny

Congressional proposals to restrict prediction-market contracts date to March, and a bipartisan inquiry into Kalshi and Polymarket was made public Oct. 29, before Democrats won control of both chambers in the Nov. 3 midterms. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. John Curtis, a Republican, made public a letter asking the platforms about safeguards against insider trading, market manipulation and trades using material nonpublic information. They requested responses by Nov. 3. On March 26, Sen. Jeff Merkley introduced S. 4226 with Sens. Warren, Richard Blumenthal, Chris Van Hollen and Sheldon Whitehouse. The bill would bar contracts tied to elections, sports and military actions, as well as contracts on government actions except for commercial hedging. It was referred to the Senate Agriculture Committee. Rep. Jamie Raskin introduced H.R. 8123 on the same day.

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