Dalio Sees U.S. Net Debt Supply Reaching $4.4 Trillion in 2027

Ray Dalio expects annual net U.S. debt supply to reach about $4.4 trillion in 2027, as artificial intelligence investment adds to borrowing demands in a market already absorbing heavy Treasury issuance. The projection excludes maturing debt that must be refinanced. Dalio puts annual net debt supply at about $3.5 trillion in 2025. The estimate does not include bonds reissued to replace debt coming due. Hyperscalers issued about $220 billion in bonds during the first half of 2026, more than twice the $108 billion issued during all of 2025. The half-year total shows how quickly borrowing for AI expansion has grown compared with the prior year's full-year issuance. Dalio linked higher AI capital spending funded through borrowing and equity issuance with declining free cash flow.

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