Brazil Stocks Plunge 17% After Lula’s Surprise Win

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The surprise victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva caused a crash in the Brazilian stock market and currency. At the same time, bitcoin rose when expressed in reals, illustrating the difference between the global performance of an asset and its value in a weakened local currency. Lula won the second round of the presidential election with 51.79% of valid votes, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The result caught investors off guard, while predictive markets assigned about 80% victory chances to the right-wing candidate. The reaction immediately affected stocks, bonds, and currency. Investors had built favorable positions on Brazil since the first round, anticipating more restrictive fiscal policy under Bolsonaro.
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