Brazil Election Results Spark Debate Over Prediction Markets After Lula Wins at 20% Odds

Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi had Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 80% on Sunday morning. By evening, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had won a fourth term, and traders were arguing about what the markets were for. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court counted 51.8% of valid votes for Lula against 48.2% for Bolsonaro, CNBC reported . With all votes counted, Lula’s margin was nearly 4.4 million votes, the Associated Press reported. Bolsonaro refused to concede and said he would ask for the result to be annulled, pointing to a Supreme Court justice’s late ruling that kept polls open two extra hours. Lula had finished second to Bolsonaro in the first round, the first time a first-round runner-up won the runoff since direct elections returned in 1989.

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