Willy Woo Runs 10,000 Bitcoin Simulations and Finds a 2028 Top Near $413,000: How Real Is It?

On-chain analyst Willy Woo posted 10,000 simulated price paths for Bitcoin on Monday, October 26, from a random-walk model trained on BTC’s history that builds in the shrinking returns of each cycle, to map where the next tops and bottoms could land. The Bitcoin news traders noticed: the median path peaks at $413,000 in December 2028. Woo himself is more cautious. “She’s optimistic,” he wrote, naming the band between roughly the 28th and 50th percentile as reasonable, a 2028 top between $241,000 and $413,000, and adding: “It’s a simulation, NOT my prediction.” Bitcoin trades at $79,770 today. So what did the model find, and what does it leave out? 10,000 POSSIBLE FUTURE PATHS A random-walk simulation trained on BTC accounting for power law degradation of returns.

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