Bitcoin May Be Underestimating a Democratic Midterm Victory, Hilbert CIO Warns

TL;DR: Prediction markets assign a 94% probability to Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives, projecting 235 seats versus 186 for Republicans. Options contracts show that five-delta puts are trading at a 13-point premium over at-the-money volatility, compared to just two points for call options. Binance recorded net outflows of approximately $3.5 billion following its weekend reopening, against a total custody base of over $170 billion in balance sheet assets. Russell Thompson , director at Hilbert Group , warned that Bitcoin could face additional risks if Democrats claim victory in the U.S. midterm elections this Tuesday, November 3. The executive noted in the firm’s market update that the leading cryptocurrency’s current price does not reflect the political impact that a power shift in the U.S. legislative branch would bring.

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