Bitcoin could reach $400,000–$500,000 by 2029, James Lavish says, citing cycles and price model

Bitcoin could reach $400,000–$500,000 by mid-2029 based on its market cycles and a model of its long-term price trend, according to James Lavish. He cautioned that the small number of observed cycles limits the strength of the analysis. In an interview shared by Bitcoin Magazine’s X account on November 10, Lavish outlined the forecast using a power-law model. He said a price one standard deviation above the model’s projected mean in mid-2029 would put Bitcoin between $400,000 and $500,000. Lavish said Bitcoin typically reaches a high about three years after forming a low, with money returning over that cycle. He cited the halving cycle, which affects mining, the four-year election cycle, and manufacturing and industrial economic cycles as possible frameworks for examining that pattern.

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