Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036, but 82% of the forecast rests on one bet

Crypto asset manager Bitwise projected a $1.6 million Bitcoin price for 2036 in its updated outlook released Oct. 28, making the growth of a combined gold-and-Bitcoin market central to its investment case. Its 34.3% annual return forecast differs sharply from the 10% compound return assumption in JPMorgan's newly introduced Bitcoin scenarios. Applying that lower return to Bitwise’s starting price produces a roughly $1.4 million gap. An illustration compounds Bitwise’s $83,557 September reference price at 10% for exactly ten years, producing about $216,725. Bitcoin traded near $81,070 as of press time, with a market value of about $1.6 trillion. JPMorgan released its assumptions on Oct. 19, introducing Bitcoin return scenarios without adding it as an allocation in its main portfolio framework.

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