Bitcoin Backtest Estimates 47% of 10x Longs Liquidated Despite Higher 180-Day Close

An Oct. 22 Bitcoin backtest estimated that 47% of hypothetical 10x perpetual longs would have been liquidated during 180-day periods in which Bitcoin ultimately closed above its starting price. Saurabh Deshpande, the report’s author, used daily Bitcoin (BTC) closing prices from January 2018 through October 2026. For 60-day periods in which Bitcoin closed above its starting price, the analysis estimated an 18% liquidation rate for a 10x perpetual long. The estimate rose to 29% for 90-day periods and 47% for 180-day periods in which Bitcoin closed above its starting price. Those percentages apply only to periods in which Bitcoin ended above its starting price. A separate simulation modeled three hypothetical $1,000 Bitcoin positions opened at 8 a.m. ET (12:00 UTC) Oct.

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