Bitcoin appears to have decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history

U.S. midterm elections are just 10 days away and bitcoin BTC $84,459.46 is approaching a period that has historically coincided with major bear-market bottoms, although this year’s recovery suggests the timing could differ. Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, shortly after the preceding midterms. Those lows arrived approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively. This year, bitcoin’s lowest price so far came much earlier. Bitcoin touched $57,850 on July 1, some 125 days before the Nov. 3 election. By Oct. 22, the price had recovered to around $81,455, roughly 40% above that low. Historical returns also reveal substantial weakness over the broader pre-election period. Bitcoin fell approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote.

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