Arthur Hayes: Can AI IPO Dilution Choke Bank Liquidity and Hit Bitcoin?

Arthur Hayes says share unlocks will dilute SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI stock after listing. That could choke artificial intelligence (AI) credit and shrink the bank balance sheets he credits for crypto’s August rebound. Hayes argues Bitcoin (BTC) holders feel it through dollar liquidity, with banks, not the Federal Reserve, creating credit. However, he concedes the latest weekly dip in bank balance sheets is a single data point. Why Do Bank Balance Sheets Link AI Stocks to Crypto? Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder who runs family office Maelstrom, laid out the thesis in a Nov. 5 newsletter . It follows his earlier balance sheet warning on Bitcoin. He says banks fund AI through loans, margin financing for stock traders, and purchases for their own books.

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