A December hike would repeat a pattern Bitcoin has lost every time

Bitcoin fell in the month after all seven Fed hikes since 2016 that followed a one-meeting pause. Polymarket and CME FedWatch price an eighth on Dec. 9 at about 67%. The Federal Reserve hiked rates on Sept. 16 and paused on Oct. 28. Markets now price a second hike on Dec. 9. This report examines what that sequence has historically meant for Bitcoin , and how stocks fared alongside it. The record is one-sided. Bitcoin finished lower 30 days after all seven Fed hikes since 2016 that immediately followed a one-meeting pause, with a median decline of 2.4%. Stocks were split. In 2018, the same calendar produced a 42% drop in Bitcoin between the midterm election and the December hike. (All prices and odds as of 12:45 p.m.

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